Page "El Niño–Southern Oscillation" Paragraph 45

It is not certain what exact changes will happen to ENSO in the future: Different models make different predictions .< ref name =" Merryfield2006 "> It may be that the observed phenomenon of more frequent and stronger El Niño events occurs only in the initial phase of the global warming, and then ( e. g., after the lower layers of the ocean get warmer as well ), El Niño will become weaker than it was.

It may also be that the stabilizing and destabilizing forces influencing the phenomenon will eventually compensate for each other.

More research is needed to provide a better answer to that question.

The ENSO is considered to be a potential tipping element in Earth's climate.