Page "Gambler's fallacy" Paragraph 44

In their experiment, Roney and Trick told participants that they were betting on either two blocks of six coin tosses, or on two blocks of seven coin tosses.

The fourth, fifth, and sixth tosses all had the same outcome, either three heads or three tails.

The seventh toss was grouped with either the end of one block, or the beginning of the next block.

Participants exhibited the strongest gambler's fallacy when the seventh trial was part of the first block, directly after the sequence of three heads or tails.

Additionally, the researchers pointed out how insidious the fallacy can be-the participants that did not show the gambler's fallacy showed less confidence in their bets and bet fewer times than the participants who picked " with " the gambler's fallacy.

However, when the seventh trial was grouped with the second block ( and was therefore perceived as not being part of a streak ), the gambler's fallacy did not occur.