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from Brown Corpus
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Although the pause in the advance of general business activity this year has thus far been quite modest, it is hard to escape the conclusion that the softening process will continue into the first quarter of 1961 and possibly somewhat longer.
It is difficult to see any powerful sources of strength on the horizon at this time which would give the economy a new upward thrust.
The rate of plant and equipment spending by business and industry now seems to be topping out and facing some decline.
In earlier business cycles, when this occurred the country usually experienced a sharp upturn in residential construction as mortgage financing became easier to obtain.
At this time, however, there are signs that increased availability of mortgage credit will not act with the usual speed to stimulate a sharp rise in residential construction.
These signs are the inventories of unsold houses in some areas of the country and the moderate rise in vacancy rates for apartments ( 7.6% in September ).
On the other hand, in a more favorable vein, general business activity should receive some stimulus from rising Federal spending, and the reduction in business inventories has probably run a good part of its course.
The 2% increase in retail sales in October to a 4-month high is encouraging in this connection as well as the most recent consumer survey by the National Industrial Conference Board, which shows a decided pickup in consumer spending plans.

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