* Gambler's fallacy

* Gambler's fallacy

The Gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy ( because its most famous example happened in a Monte Carlo Casino in 1913 ), and also referred to as the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that if deviations from expected behaviour are observed in repeated independent trials of some random process, future deviations in the opposite direction are then more likely.

* Gambler's fallacy

This phenomenon should not be confused with the Gambler's fallacy, it only concerns regularity in the ( possibly very ) long run.

Gambler's fallacy does not apply to statistical regularity because the latter considers the whole rather than individual cases.

* Gambler's fallacy

# REDIRECT Gambler's fallacy

* Gambler's fallacy

See the Gambler's fallacy.

* Gambler's fallacy

* Gambler's fallacy

* Gambler's fallacy

* Gambler's fallacy

# REDIRECT Gambler's fallacy

* Gambler's fallacy

* Gambler's fallacy

# REDIRECT Gambler's fallacy

Many years ago, Mrs. Grey, author of The Gambler's Wife and other novels, was on a visit at Ombersley Court, when Lady Sandys chanced to remark that she wished she could get some very good curry powder, which elicited from Mrs. Grey that she had in her desk an excellent recipe, which her uncle, Sir Charles, Chief Justice of India, had brought thence, and given her.

The man entering the room would commit the Inverse Gambler's Fallacy if he said, " You've probably been rolling the dice for quite a while, since it's unlikely you would get a double-six on your first attempt.

* Holmes, Terence Michael, "' One Throw of the Gambler's Dice ': A Comment on Holger Herwig's View of the Schlieffen Plan ", The Journal of Military History, Vol.

Some poems and songs, like the Gambler's Mass ( officio lusorum ) from the Carmina Burana, were parodies of Christian hymns, while others were student melodies: folksongs, love songs and drinking ballads.

Meanwhile, at Judith's insistence, Fitz attends a Gambler's Anonymous meeting, which culminates in Fitz leading the members in a betting frenzy.

One variation of this is known as the Gambler's Fallacy.

#" Gambler's Blues " ( Hay, Kooymans, E. Roelfzema ) – 4: 31

Among her other films are The Sisters ( 1938 ), Now, Voyager ( 1942 ), Mrs. Parkington ( 1944 ), Gambler's Choice ( 1944 ), Mildred Pierce ( 1945 ), Wake Up and Dream ( 1946 ), Caged ( 1950 ), There's No Business Like Show Business ( 1954 ), Vertigo ( 1958 ), Auntie Mame ( 1958 ), Pillow Talk ( 1959 ), Summer and Smoke ( 1961 ), and 7 Faces of Dr. Lao ( 1964 ).

King, " Gambler's Blues.

In Gambler's Gulch, the lead monster also defeats the reptilian beast, Togera.

Dubbed the " Gambler's Express ," service connected Atlantic City with cities up and down the Northeast Corridor as well as a local commuter service run by NJT.

Prior to the 1995 takeover, NJT trains terminating at Lindenwold would actually run to just east of the present day Cherry Hill Station where the nearest passing siding was located in order to clear the line for " Gambler's Express " trains and to allow the crew to change ends.

Gambler's pilot.

The Texas sharpshooter fallacy often arises when a person has a large amount of data at their disposal, but only focuses on a small subset of that data.

The converse of this fallacy is called fallacy of composition, which arises when one fallaciously attributes a property of some part of a thing to the thing as a whole.

The fallacy of composition arises when one infers that something is true of the whole from the fact that it is true of some part of the whole ( or even of every proper part ).

The fallacy arises from confusing the natures of two different failure rates.

Plato ’ s argument is an early example of a so-called genetic fallacy since his conclusion arises from his famous lodestone ( magnet ) analogy.

Bertrand Russell noted: " The argument does not, to a modern mind, seem very convincing, but it is easier to feel convinced that it must be fallacious than it is to find out precisely where the fallacy lies.

The reversal is also a fallacy ( not to be confused with the inverse gambler's fallacy ) in which a gambler may instead decide that tails are more likely out of some mystical preconception that fate has thus far allowed for consistent results of tails.

According to the fallacy, " streaks " must eventually even out in order to be representative.

Additionally, the researchers pointed out how insidious the fallacy can be-the participants that did not show the gambler's fallacy showed less confidence in their bets and bet fewer times than the participants who picked " with " the gambler's fallacy.

On the one hand, those discussions of the relativist fallacy which make the fallacy out to be identical to relativism ( e. g., linguistic relativism or cultural relativism ) are themselves committing a commonly-identified fallacy of informal logic, namely, begging the question against an earnest, intelligent, logically-competent relativist.

: See main articles: False attribution, Fallacy of quoting out of context, No true Scotsman, Shifting ground fallacy.

As Nelson points out, a common fallacy in reasoning in IST is that of illegal set formation.

Since the quote is typically used to demonstrate the fallacy of predictions, if Watson did make such a prediction in 1943, then, as Gordon Bell pointed out in his ACM 50 years celebration keynote, it would have held true for some ten years.

## Quoting an opponent's words out of context — i. e. choosing quotations that misrepresent the opponent's actual intentions ( see fallacy of quoting out of context ).

Asimov points out that this question is the logical fallacy of the pseudo-question.

" It is a fallacy that Marxism's flaws were exposed only after it was tried out in power .... and Engels were centralizers.

:: Rebuttal: To reject the fallacy as inherently fallacious, one would argue that even a lack of precedents would not, by itself, justify keeping the policy, as innovations, such as lending libraries and professional police and firefighting forces, have turned out to have been valuable changes in policy.

The fallacy lies in coming to a conclusion based solely on the order of events, rather than taking into account other factors that might rule out the connection.

In no sense does the future event " compensate for " or " even out " the previous event, though this is assumed in the gambler's fallacy ( and variant law of averages ).

By contrast, the gambler's fallacy incorrectly assumes that the coin is now " due " for a run of tails, to balance out.

I distinctly avowed that hypnotism laid no claim to produce any phenomena which were not " quite reconcilable with well-established physiological and psychological principles "; pointed out the various sources of fallacy which might have misled the mesmerists ; was the first to give a public explanation of the trick which a fraudulent subject had been able to deceive his mesmerizer …

“ The pathos has largely gone out of the pathetic fallacy ,” says Jeffrey M. Hurwit, writing in The Classical Journal in 1982: “ Today it is generally regarded simply as a variety of personification ...

This fallacy grows largely out of Aristotle's attempt to lampoon his ideas in his book, Metaphysics.